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光大期货【铜】：基本面表现仍偏乐观 但宏观不确定性使得价格出现反复

2024-07-07 18:33:36 浏览:88

隔夜LME铜震荡偏弱。海外方面，美国8月PPI数据环比7月回落，但核心PPI仍超预期，结合此前公布的CPI数据，9月议息会议上加息75个基点已经毫无悬念，预期加息100个基点的概率也大幅上升，加息节奏的突然改变使得有色再次谨慎。国内方面，疫情本轮影响力目前来看并不显著，同时政策托底力度也在加大，稳增长仍是主旋律。

基本面方面，限电限产逐渐结束下，9月供给也将继续修复，同时下游需求也在改善进程中。库存方面来看，LME库存昨日增加200吨至103225吨；国内广东社会库存昨日438吨至10388吨。现货升贴水来看，LME铜维系偏高升水，0-3调期费升水119.25美元/吨，结合库存表现挤仓忧虑依然存在；国内平水铜降至均价升水20元/吨，升水总体下降说明投资者对当前价格偏谨慎。综合来看，基本面表现仍偏乐观，但宏观不确定性使得价格出现反复，联储议息日益临近，利空消化也在加快，建议谨慎。

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